If you think the
world is coming to an end in two weeks, go to a college campus…it will take at
least two years.
---Mark
Twain
Innovation has touched every aspect of
our lives…except education. There is no aspect of the human experience that has
been more vacant of innovation than education, especially higher education.
Innovation in education offers more opportunity for the advancement of society than
any other endeavor that could be pursued by mankind. Colleges and universities
continue to deliver their service in the same manner as they have for
centuries: A professor stands before a class of students delivers a lecture and
students read a text book. This is an archaic system that is on the threshold
of a massive transition. Certainly, established institutions will resist the
change as they always have throughout history. The concept of efficiency,
productivity and efficacy in the delivery of knowledge and skill has had no
place in the world of academia. We are now entering an agonizing period whereby
the educational delivery system will be completely restructured by innovation
and enabling technologies. The landscape in higher education is about to change
dramatically.
Today’s
education delivery system:
The educational delivery system
throughout history has been characterized by:
1.
Students
show up to classrooms where professors deliver lectures.
2.
Students
read textbooks
3.
All
students, fast learners and slow learners are delivered the same instruction.
4.
All
courses are the same length (a semester or quarter) regardless of the amount or
complexity of the content
5.
All
classes operate on one hour cycles (45 minutes of lecture, 15 minutes to change
classes) and are delivered at a specific time and place convenient for the
professor and university.
6.
Class
sizes are limited to 25-30 students and the physical plant is geared to that
sizing criteria.
7.
Degree
programs are structured to graduate students in four, or five, years, assuming
class availability and reasonable student progress.
This is the “straight jacket” in which
higher education has lived for centuries.
Innovation Transforms Education:
Enabling technologies have emerged that
provide the power to transform the delivery of education. While in its infancy,
it is clear that we are at the doorstep of enormous changes in higher
education, if not indeed in the entire educational delivery system. This is
being brought on by the emergence of on-line courses and programs. These were
pioneered by for-profit enterprises, but are now rapidly proliferating
throughout the non-profit institutional space. Emerging companies, such as
Coursera, Udacity and EdX have led the way by providing an infrastructure for
the delivery of what are known as MOOCs or Massive Open On-line Courses. But
this is just the “tip of the iceberg”.
We
can best understand this through an example.
A Stanford professor of mathematics
recently posted his course on differential equations on Coursera’s on-line
site. He put considerable effort into making the course interesting and an
effective learning presentation supplemented by good graphic illustrations,
video and other learning materials. He built in student progress assessment mechanisms
that permit the course program to triage learners into fast-forward or remedial
instruction tracks. In a course, such as differential equations, like majority
of others, there is little, or no, benefit to student interaction. 120,000
students took his course. As he puts it, “I have spent many man-hours every
semester for years teaching this course to only twenty students at a time.
Through the Coursera program I have taught more students in three months than
otherwise in my lifetime. It would have taken 1,000 professors six years to
teach the course to that many students.” In this example, we have seen a
glimpse of the future.
But
more is happening…much more.
Most MOOC courses are free and not for
credit and therefore do not apply toward a degree. That is beginning to change.
The first MOOC courses offered for credit were introduced in January, 2013 and
in May, 2013, Georgia Tech launched an entirely MOOC-based Master’s Degree for
$7,000. Students anywhere can take this
Master’s Degree program without ever setting foot in Georgia. This dramatically
expands the market for this Georgia Tech product.
A small university in New Hampshire
offers a number of on-line degree programs. These degree programs generated
over $130 million in revenue for the university during the last academic year
and produced an operating surplus of $29 million. While their brick &
mortar campus served 2,750 students, the on-line program enrollment was 25,000.
Students on campus paid an average of $112,000 in tuition, plus room, board,
books and other expenses for their degree. The cost of the same degree on-line
is about $38,000. Only twenty-five faculty members are required to provide the
instruction on-line.
This
is a tidal wave that is forming and will transform higher education.
There will be vigorous resistance to
this change by faculty and administrators. They will argue that there is no
substitute for the classroom experience, the interaction between students and
the teacher. This is just so much B.S. and will ultimately give way to the
power of competition and economics.
While not all courses are well-suited to
on-line instruction, a huge portion are and can be delivered more effectively
through that modality. They will not be delivered by TAs or average faculty
members. Students will learn from the best.
So,
what will change?
At the most fundamental level we can
expect important transformations in the way education is delivered.
1. Courses will become “productized”. Many
courses are commodity-like and can be structured into well-designed instructional
“products.” Top professors and universities are developing these on-line format
courses in a way that facilitates the learning of the content material and
makes it more interesting for students. These courses will not just be videos
of “talking heads’, they will be well-designed courses that deliver the
material in a compelling, easy-to-learn way.
Examples of well-suited courses
include: accounting, chemistry, physics, biology, mathematics (algebra, statistics,
calculus, geometry, etc.), psychology, economics, astronomy, language studies
and more.
2. Competency-based degree and course
credit programs will replace time period based
instruction. The empowering character of MOOC, MOOC-variant programs and other
on-line technologies will empower the implementation of, and drive the demand
for, competency-based education. While largely in an experimental and
developmental stage, this approach to education is set to expand rapidly,
fueled in part by innovations in the application of technology.
Competency-based systems allow all learners to progress at their own pace, yet
assure that the student has adequately mastered the subject to merit the award
of the course credit and ultimately the degree.
3.
The pace of
learning will become variable; linked to the individual. Fast learners,
and those that work harder, will progress through the learning experience at an
accelerated pace, not held back by those of average or sub-par learning
abilities. Slower learners will progress at a pace geared to their abilities
and work ethic.
4.
The rigid
structure of class periods, semesters and degree timelines will break down. There is no
good reason why all courses should take exactly one semester. There is no
reason why class cycles should all run one hour. There is no reason why all
students should take four years (or more) to graduate.
5.
Instruction will
cease to be linked to the academic year schedule. There is no
good reason why students must begin their classes, all at the same time, in the
fall or at the beginning of a semester. They will be able to commence their
study at any time of the year.
6. The physical classroom will become obsolete for
many/most courses.
Universities
will need to rethink the structure and function of their physical plant.
7.
Much of the
curriculum becomes commoditized. When we
examine the typical undergraduate college curriculum we discover that a
majority of the courses can be delivered better through well-designed internet-based
programs than through the terrestrial classroom format. These courses are
basically those that benefit very little by the interaction between a teacher
and students or between students.
8.
Social Media
will play an increasing role in education. The interaction between
students and teachers and the interaction between students has long been a
vital part of the educational process. Young people coming of age now are much
more into interaction through social media. Companies like Piazza are providing
an on-line gathering place for students to interact with university faculty and
other students in much the same way that they might in a classroom. However,
through this platform, interaction is available 24/7, not just during classroom
of office hours. Through platforms such as this, students will have social
interaction with classmates all over the country and the world. It is a growing
new medium for student interaction focused around their learning experience.
9.
Textbooks will
become obsolete.
Courses developed for on-line delivery will increasingly use excellent
graphics, audio and video with text presentations and will be programmed like a
computer. Tests, or built-in progress assignment mechanisms, will allow fast
learners to skip forward while rerouting others into remedial channels. This
will be far more powerful than textbooks which are linear in nature and have no
way to know how well the student understands what is presented. The on-line
course will become the textbook in the future.
10. Degree Programs will be formed from a composite of
courses offered by multiple universities. Universities will begin
constructing degree programs that select, bring together and bundle courses
from other institutions to construct better academic offerings. Through this, a
student might take an approved course in mathematics from Stanford or the
University of Michigan, and economics course from a prominent faculty member at
the University of Chicago, a science class from MIT and a cluster of core
courses from the degree-granting university.
11. Prices will come down. For decades,
the cost of a college education has been rising. It has been rising faster than
any other product or service that consumers purchase (including healthcare).
The will soon come to an end. Ferocious competition is arriving at the doorstep
of higher education. Historically, universities have competed within fairly
narrow market segments, characterized by price, brand, geography, academic
offering and other factors. With the onset of course “products” and internet
delivery modalities, any university can compete anywhere anytime.
12. Large populations of faculty will become obsolete,
unneeded.
The transformative in commodity type courses is likely to result in at least
half of all faculty positions at universities becoming unnecessary. Because of
the tenure system, universities will struggle to reduce their “headcount”
consistent with the decline in need for these employees.
13. The Economic Model of Higher Education will change. The amount of
labor (faculty and administration time) to deliver on-line instruction is
small, especially when spread across a large number of students and multiple
years. Up-front there are capital costs to develop the courses, but all the
repetitive costs of professor lesson plan preparation and classroom delivery of
material will be eliminated. Thus, the costs per student will drop enormously
in this business model.
14. Competition will intensify…significantly. The ability of
any university or professor to deliver courses anywhere, any time at a
competitive price (not burdened by labor or facilities costs) will transform
the markets for higher education. A university in New England will go after
students in the “backyard’ of a university in California (and vice versa). With
gross margins near 90 percent in the on-line offerings, price competition will
flourish. Universities with strong programs and strong brand equity in certain
academic specialties will do well in diverse geographic markets, while those
without distinction will struggle. Universities will need to learn how to
become effective at marketing. They can learn a great deal from the for-profit
sector regarding those strategies. The days of charging big tuition prices will
come to an end.
15. An opportunity to improve educational efficacy.
When we
look on the bright side of what technology and innovation will bring to
education, the picture is exciting, but challenging. It offers to free
educators from the “mundane” instruction that they deliver in the traditional
format of today’s system. That will be empowered to focus on more valuable
learning experiences for students. There is much that technology cannot do
well. Many areas benefit from interaction with the teacher and other students.
Communication and thinking skills are among these. The social and philosophic
development of young people also requires beneficial interactivity. How do you
teach critical thinking, analytical processes, and problem solving? How do you
teach a student to persuasively convey his or her ideas? How do they harness
the power of interrogative means to get to the bottom of an issue? In the new world, educators will be challenged
to step up to the full intellectual and personal development of the whole
person.
Innovations enabled
by technology need not spell the demise of (all) universities. But certainly
big adjustments must be made. With compellingly more efficient, more effective,
less costly means to deliver a large part of college education coming soon, it
is imperative that academic leaders rethink their business models and their
strategy.
University
leaders always put down for profit education companies, yet they are soon to
enter their domain. For-profits education companies have advantages. They do
not carry the heavy costs of athletic programs, bloated bureaucracies and
expensive facilities. They also focus on delivering customer value, i.e.
education and placement instead of “research”. They have also developed a core
competency in marketing; in recruiting customers (students). They are
unburdened with the baggage of tenure and are free to hire the best faculty and
get rid of weak performers. Non-profits are wise to learn from these
competitors.
In pursuit of the provision of value
All goods and
services are measured by consumers by the value they deliver (i.e. what one
procures, divided by its cost). Strangely, neither producers nor consumers of
higher education have focused on this concept. The title wave of intense
competition that is coming will change that. Universities have benefited,
especially recently, from the strong demand for their services, giving them the
opportunity to increase prices aggressively, in lock-step. This has been fueled
by a weak job market. High school graduates cannot find employment, so they opt
to go to college. Also, college education promises better jobs when they
graduate, a promise that many are finding vacant. Also, fueling this demand is
the excessive availability of student loans with lenient borrowing standards. This
is another factor driving prices up at an unsustainable and unreasonable rate.
Because of the unwise public policy making such loans easily available, many
young people will ultimately suffer under the burden of the ill-advised
acquisition of debt they accumulated to get their education. A huge portion of
young people pursue academic majors that offer little prospect of gainful employment.
They simply have a good time in college studying fun subjects that interest
them, but have little value in preparing them for a viable career or for any
meaningful employment. They graduate with a mountain of debt, but without the
economic ability to live independently. This is just plain wrong.
Educators must
change this equation. The concepts of educational productivity and efficacy
must become imperatives in their profession. They must embrace the idea of
delivering more educational efficacy through innovation and enabling
technologies. They must be willing to let go of the old ways of doing things
and aggressively look at new modalities for the delivery of education. They
must focus on the comprehensive intellectual and personal development of
students. Moreover, priority must be given to providing young people with the
skills and knowledge to become employed as productive members of society.
Early
adopters/innovators will benefit from the massive transitions that are
beginning. Like the progressive university in New Hampshire, incremental
revenue and operating surplus can be generated from the extension of their
business model into cyberspace. Such offerings will dramatically extend their
market reach. On-line programs will also expand the market to include
“customers” that are geographically “challenged” such as those in military
service or others in families employed overseas where access to college
education is limited. American Public Education (APEI) has made a very
successful business serving this market and has current enrollment of 130,000
students. Working adults have always been a good market for these programs, but
there is no reason that they need to be limited to the adult education market.
Soon the lines will become blurred between adult and traditional campus
programs offered to high school graduates.
However, while
initially the market will expand and first movers will prosper, the advent of
elevated competition, price pressure and the conversion of campus-based
enrollment to on-line will pose a very serious challenge for most universities.
Traditional, high-tuition-paying enrollment will drop significantly as students
increasingly choose a less costly and better educational experience on a
cyber-campus. For those laggard institutions that do not seize the moment to
transform their operating models, revenues will decline sharply and many
universities will face extinction.
Within 15 years, half of the universities in America
will become insolvent.